Turkish steps toward joining the Shanghai group highlights Ankara's now-ambivalent membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, starkly symbolized by the unprecedented joint Turkish-Chinese air exercise of 2010. Given this reality, Erdoğan's Turkey is no longer a trustworthy partner for the West but more like a mole in its inner sanctum. If not expelled, it should at least be suspended from NATO. Feb. 6, 2013 addenda : (1) Whoever first came up with the various Shanghai sobriquets for the Russian-Chinese organization probably did not realize that in English the verb to shanghai means “to force or trick (someone) into doing something, going somewhere, etc.” How appropriate a nuance for this semi-rogue sextet! Were it not an obsolete term, I would have titled this column Shanghaiing Turkey . एक माह उपरांत तुर्की के प्रधानमंत्री रिसेप तईप एरडोगन को रूस के राष्ट्रपति व्लादिमिर पुतिन से कहते सुना गया कि, “ आइये हमें शंघाई पाँच में पूर्ण सदस्य के रूप में स्वीकार करें तो हम यूरोपीय संघ की अपनी सदस्यता के सम्बंध में पुनर्विचार कर सकते हैं” । एरडोगन ने यूरोपीय संघ में शामिल होने के तुर्की के प्रयास को रोके जाने के बाद इस विचार को 25 जनवरी को पुनः दुहराया । 7.5 करोड लोगों के प्रधानमंत्री के नाते उन्होंने इसकी व्याख्या करते हुए कहा, “ हमें अन्य विकल्पों की ओर भी देखना चाहिये यही कारण है कि मैंने श्रीमान पुतिन से उस दिन कहा कि , ” हमें शंघाई पाँच में शामिल करें और हम यूरोपीय संघ को अलविदा कह देंगे“ रोकने का सवाल कहाँ आता है? उन्होंने जोडा कि , ” एस सी ओ कहीं अधिक बेहतर है, यह यूरोपीय संघ से अधिक शक्तिशाली है और इसके सदस्यों के मूल्यों के हम भी साझीदार हैं” ।
12.
Dominate Egypt? If the military colludes with Islamists to remain in power, obviously it, and not Islamists retains ultimate control. This is the key point that conventional analysts miss: the recent election results allow the military to keep power . As aspiring Egyptian politician Mohamed ElBaradei correctly notes, “it is all in the hands of SCAF right now.” True, if Islamists control the parliament (not a sure thing; the military could yet decide to reduce their percentage in future rounds of an unusually complex voting procedure open to abuse), they acquire certain privileges and move the country further toward the Shari'a - as far, anyway, as SCAF permits. This maintains the long-term trend of Islamization underway since the military seized power in 1952. What about Western policy? First, press SCAF to build the civil society that must precede real democracy, so that the modern and moderate civilians in Egypt have a chance to express themselves. Second, instantly cease all economic aid to Cairo. It is unacceptable that Western taxpayers pay, even indirectly, for Islamizing Egypt. Resume funding only when the government allows secular Muslims, liberals, and Copts, among others, freely to express and organize themselves. Third, oppose both the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafis. Less extreme or more, Islamists of every description are our worst enemies. Mr. Pipes ( www.DanielPipes.org ) is president of the Middle East Forum and Taube fellow at the Hoover Institution. Ms Farahat is an Egyptian activist and co-author of a book about the Tahrir Square protests. A man walks by a graffito that proclaims “No to military rule,” crosses out a picture of military dictator Mohamed at-Tantawi and calls him a “fag.” Dec. 6, 2011 addendum : The text above refers to the USSR but Russia held elections two days ago that the U.S. secretary of state denounced for their “electoral fraud and manipulation.” At least they don't insult everyone's intelligence with 99-percent results. Egypt's military rulers said Wednesday that they would control the process of writing a constitution and maintain authority over the interim government to check the power of Islamists who have taken a commanding lead in parliamentary elections. मिस्र पर नियंत्रण? यदि सेना सत्ता में बने रहने के लिये इस्लामवादियों के साथ समझौता करती है जो कि ऐसा करेगी और इस्लामवादी अंतिम रूप से पूरा नियंत्रण स्थापित नहीं करते। यह मुख्य बिंदु है जिसे कि परम्परागत विश्लेषक भूल जा रहे हैं: हाल के चुनाव परिणाम से सेना को सत्ता पर नियंत्रण का अवसर मिलता है। जैसा कि मिस्रके उदीयमान राजनेता मोहम्मद अल बरदेयी ने सही ही कहा है, “ अभी तो सब कुछ एससीएसएफ के हाथ में है”।
13.
Apr. 11, 2013 addenda : Some reflections that did not fit the main article: (1) Before this article appeared, I gave a several interviews ( here , here and here ) advocating tactical support for the Assad regime; these prompted name-calling by CAIR and some hysterical reactions about me urging genocide in Syria. No: I look forward to the day when Syria is at peace with itself and a good neighbor, when its government is democratic and law-abiding. But until that distant time, I prefer that evil forces direct their attentions against each other than against the outside world. (2) To the argument that early Western support for the rebels would have prevented the Islamists from dominating them ( which they now do ), I reply that Western powers did provide early support to rebels in Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt and look what that achieved - Islamists dominate all three of those countries. The same would likely have been the case in Syria. Western assistance is not that influential in altering the course of an ideological movement. (3) I dislike advocating support for Assad and respect the intentions of those who share my goals but disagree with my means. I do, however, see them engaging in wishful, non-strategic thinking. (4) That my approach gives priority to strategic considerations marks it, in the context of modern Western politics, as conservative. Liberals enjoy a confidence in their own wellbeing that conservatives lack. Where liberals tend to worry about others (snail darters), conservatives tend to worry about themselves (a sufficient electricity supply). Consistent with this temperamental difference, the former focus on civilian welfare in Syria and the latter on Western security. (5) My advice is hardly original to me but is old-fashioned Realpolitik. Put differently, it fits into a divide-and-rule tradition that goes back to the Romans. (6) Assad's staying in power has the advantage that the regime's chemical weapons are less dangerous than if he fell. इस भावना के अनुरूप मेरा तर्क है कि अमेरिका को हारते हुए पक्ष की सहायता करनी चाहिये और वह कोई भी क्यों न हो, जैसा कि मई 1987 के विश्लेषण में मैंने कहा था, “ 1980 में जब इराक ने ईरान को धमकी दी थी तो हमारा हित कुछ मात्रा में ईरान के साथ था। परंतु 1982 की गर्मियों से इराक रक्षात्मक हो गया और अब वाशिंगटन पूरी तरह इसके साथ है..... भविष्य की ओर यदि देखें तो क्या इराक एक बार पुनः आक्रामक हो सकेगा वैसे तो यह सम्भव नहीं दिखता परंतु असम्भव भी नहीं है, अमेरिका को फिर से युद्ध में आना चाहिये और ईरान को सहायता करने के सम्बंध में सोचना चाहिये” ।
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