Paradoxically, even on a rainy day, a probability forecast of a 20 percent chance for rain could be part of a perfect prediction providing that it rains on only 20 percent of the days when such a prediction is made.
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Surprisingly, even on a rainy day, a probability forecast of a 20 percent chance for rain could be part of a perfect prediction providing that it rains on only 20 percent of the days when such a prediction is made.
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But a draft of the plan, obtained by The Associated Press, has changed the proposed one-hour " blackout warnings " to less certain " probability forecasts " that people familiar with the policy say could be wrong two-thirds of the time.
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Epstein's and Murphy's paper A Note on Probability Forecasts and'Hedging,' published in the Journal of Applied Meteorology in 1967, introduced the term'proper'in connection with forecasts and scoring systems, according to BAMS, which noted that new scoring systems are almost always subjected to this'properness'test .
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