Ugh. I wish I hadn't. I'll attach a transcript at the end. What I said was accurate: that in an off-the-record conversation with military analysts, a couple had suggested that the Israeli strategy involved leaving Hezbellah 'rocket pockets' in place so as to shape public perceptions and give their forces more freedom of maneuver in Lebanon. Such a strategy might be considered logical and even moral, in that while suffering some short-term casualties, it would provide more protection for more Israelis in the long run. But I've since heard from some smart, well-informed people that while such a strategy might be logical, that the Israeli public just wouldn't stand for it. And they were pretty dismayed that I has passed on the thought. My comments were based on a long conversation I had with a senior Israeli official a couple of years ago … Best Tom ऐसा अमेरिका और उसके सहयोगियों द्वारा असाधारण शक्ति उपभोग के कारण हुआ है .जैसा कि इतिहासकार पाल कैनेडी ने 2002 में कहा था - “ सैन्य अर्थों में केवल एक शक्ति है जिसकी गिनती की जा सकती है , पिछले समय को देखकर उन्होंने पाया , इससे पहले शक्ति का इतना असंतुलन कभी नहीं देखा गया और इजरायल अपनी क्षमता में एक क्षेत्रीय शक्ति और वाशिंगटन के निकट सहयोगी के तौर पर संख्या पर संख्या के संबंध में हिजबुल्लाह के समकक्ष है.”
22.
As Prof. Murat Üçer of Koc University wrote in the Fall newsletter of the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM), A serious and probably quite painful 'adjustment' is inevitable in the short-term, in order to bring current account deficit to more 'normal' levels….This can't happen with a weaker currency alone; growth will also have to slow visibly. Second, an excessive CAD level points to a structural weakness in the economy. It simply attests to our inability as a nation, to put forth enough of a presence in the global supply chain of goods and services. Put differently, it implies that our average dollar-based income - per capita as well as per worker, which runs around $10,000 and $30,000, respectively - is simply too high, compared to our average productivity levels. By this interpretation, the current account deficit represents nothing but a structural deficit in our skills and institutions. Turkey simply is not the economic powerhouse it likes to think it is, and the humbling of Turkey's economic prospects presages a similar humiliation in its global standing. वैसे तो विदेशमंत्री अहमत देवतोग्लू कहते हैं कि “ तुर्की सभी घटनाओं के केंद्र में सही स्थिति में है” लेकिन एकेपी के शत्रुता के भाव ने पडोसियों के साथ “ शून्य समस्या” की उनकी नीति को व्यापक शत्रुता और सम्भावित सैन्य टकराव ( सीरिया, साइप्रस और इजरायल) में बदल दिया है । जैसे ही आर्थिक संकट उत्पन्न होगा एक समय का नाटो का औदाहरणिक सदस्य और भी भटक जायेगा और इसके संकेत स्वरूप एरडोगन को अपने मित्र ह्वुजो शावेज को अंगीकार करते देखा जा सकता है।
23.
Where does this leave matters? Tantawi and company are safely pensioned off, and (unlike Hosni Mubarak) are not going to jail. Sissi's military has retreated to roughly the same position that Tantawi's military occupied before Mubarak's overthrow in Feb. 2011, which is to say it is allied with the president and following his leadership without being fully subordinate to him. It retains control over its own budget , its promotions and dismissals, and its economic empire . But the military leadership lost the direct political power that it enjoyed for 1½ years in 2011-12. Morsi's future is far from assured. Not only does he face competing factions of Islamists but Egypt faces a terrible economic crisis . Morsi's power today unquestionably brings major short-term benefits for himself and the Brotherhood; but in the long term it will likely discredit Brotherhood rule . यह मामला हमें कहाँ ले जायेगा? तंतावी और उनके सहयोगियों को सुरक्षित रूप से सेवानिवृत्त कर दिया गया है और ( हुस्नी मुबारक के विपरीत) वे जेल नहीं जा रहे हैं। सिसी की सेना उसी स्थान पर आ गयी है कि जिस स्थान पर मुबारक को सत्ताच्युत करने से पूर्व फरवरी 2011 में तंतावी थे, जिसके लिये कहा जा सकता है कि वे राष्ट्रपति के सहयोगी हैं और पूरी तरह उनके अधीनस्थ हुए बिना उनके नेतृत्व को मान रहे हैं। उसका अपने बजट, प्रोन्नति , पदच्युत किये जाने और आर्थिक साम्राज्य पर पूरा नियंत्रण है। परंतु सैन्य नेतृत्व ने प्रत्यक्ष राजनीतिक शक्ति खो दी है जिसका उपभोग 2011 से 2012 के मध्य डेढ वर्षों तक इन्होंने किया।
24.
I am an economist and banker. I would sum up my main area of expertise/responsibility as “Turkish debt”. As much as I dislike the AKP and its ideas, what they did (or tried to do) in the economy was exactly the opposite of what you suggest in your article. I am 37 and for the first time in my life I witnessed the notion of a Turkish state budget in the black under these guys. Your assertion that “the party's patronage machine borrowed massive amounts of short-term debt to finance a consumption bubble” is wrong, to say the least. Do you mean they borrowed money and rationed to the public so they can spend? :) I'm kidding. But the reality is that Turkish foreign debt has in fact shrank, again under these guys, when looked at in terms of who did the borrowing. The Turkish public debt is largely owed to the Turkish public, and the portion that constitutes foreign debt makes up the minority of Turkey's foreign debt. It is indeed the private sector that borrowed heavily in the past 8 years or so due to the fact that USD borrowing was extremely cheap. Banks in turn lent that money in the domestic markets as cheaper credit, which fuelled the boom you mention in your article. The AKP has been trying hard to curb that growth as they are very aware of the dangers. इजरायल के साथ युद्ध की ताक में - गमाल अब्दुल नसीर और सद्दाम हुसैन की परम्परा का पालन करते हुए तुर्की प्रधानमंत्री ने इजरायल विरोधी लफ्फाजी के द्वारा स्वयं को अरब राजनीतिक सितारा बनाने का प्रयास आरम्भ कर दिया है। लोग यह सोचते हुए भी भयभीत होते हैं और मानते हैं कि इससे पूर्व ही वह अपना तेवर त्याग देंगे।मई 2010 में गाजा में एक विरोधी जहाज को अंकारा ने समर्थन दिया जिसमें अपनाये गये आक्रामक तेवर के चलते इजरायल की सेना ने आठ तुर्की नागरिकों और तुर्क नस्ल के व्यक्ति को मार गिराया और इस घटना का भरपूर उपयोग कर तुर्की ने अपने देश में यहूदी राज्य के विरुद्ध घरेलू स्तर पर आक्रोश भड्काया। एरडोगन ने इस घटना को युद्ध भड्काने के लिये पर्याप्त करार दिया और आवश्यकता पड्ने पर इजरायल के साथ युद्ध की भाषा भी कही और इसके साथ ही एक बार फिर गाजा के लिये जहाज भेजने की बात की और यदि आवश्यकता हुई तो इस बार सेना के संरक्षण में।
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