But an attack will have unfavorable consequences, and especially in two related areas: Muslim public opinion and the oil market. All indications suggest that air strikes would cause the now-alienated Iranian population to rally to its government . Globally, air strikes would inflame already hostile Muslim attitudes toward the United States, leading to a surge in support for radical Islam and a further separation of civilizations . News reports indicate that Tehran is funding terrorist groups so that they can assault American embassies, military bases, and economic interests, step up attacks in Iraq, and launch rockets against Israel. दूसरी सम्भावना यह है कि अमेरिकी सरकार अपने कुछ सहयोगियों के साथ ईरानी क्षेत्रों को नष्ट कर तेहरान की परमाणु आकांक्षा को समाप्त कर दे या फिर विलम्बित कर दे. सैन्य विश्लेषक मानते हैं कि अमेरिकी वायु शक्ति अच्छे खुफिया तन्त्र और विशेष अध्यादेशों के सहारे कुछ ही दिनों में क्षति पहुंचाकर हारमुज जलडमरू को बचाने में भी सक्षम है.
22.
Protracted isolation has led to steep economic decline. Recent P.A. figures show that 84% of the Palestinian population lives in poverty, as defined by the World Bank, four times the number that did so before the Palestinians stepped up the violence in late 2000. P.A. residents number 3.5 million and their economy produces $2.5 billion a year, meaning the average per capita income is $700 a year. इस प्रकार लम्बे समय तक अलग-थलग रहने से तेजी से आर्थिक पतन हुआ है. विश्व बैंक की परिभाषा के अनुसार फिलीस्तीनी अथारिटी के नवीनतम सर्वेक्षण में पाया गया है कि 84 प्रतिशत फिलीस्तीनी जनसंख्या गरीबी में निवास कर रही है जो कि 2000 में आरम्भ हुये आर्थिक पतन के बाद चार गुना अधिक है. फिलीस्तीनी अथारिटी की जनसंख्या 3.5 करोड़ है और उनकी अर्थव्यवस्था 25 बिलियन डालर प्रतिवर्ष उत्पन्न करती है जिसके अनुसार प्रतिव्यक्ति आय 700 डालर प्रतिवर्ष है.
23.
Terrorists are not stupid; focusing on Arabs, as Smerconish urges, will prompt them to turn to non-Arab operatives. This is already a concern. Jean-Louis Bruguière, the leading French anti-terrorist investigating judge, warned along these lines in May 2003, recounts Robert Leiken , that “al-Qaida had stepped up its European recruiting efforts and was on the lookout for women and light-skinned converts in particular.” The deputy director of a French intelligence agency, the Direction de la Surveillance du Territoire, even told Mr. Leiken that “converts are our most critical work now.” Smerconish responds to my argument by acknowledging that his book may at some point become obsolete, “but that day is not today.” He sees physical appearance remaining a key predictor of intentions. फिलाडेल्फिया डेली न्यूज़ के स्तंभकार और रेडियो टॉक शो के मेजबान माईकल ए. स्मरकोनिश ने अपनी नई और साहसी पुस्तक Flying Blind: How Political Correctness Continues to Compromise Airline Safety Post 9/11 . में लिखा है कि प्रमुख तत्व नस्ल है . इसके विपरीत मेरा मानना है कि मुख्य बाहरी तत्व नहीं है वरन् यह है कि व्यक्ति के मस्तिष्क में क्या है जिसे इस्लामवादी आस्था कह सकते हैं.
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