Speculators who make their own split synthetic trade, a commonly employed strategy, based on pessimistic FT-SE forecasts could make a 218 percent return on their gamble, or 2 . 18 billion pounds, if the FT-SE 100 Index does fall to 3, 300 by June, according to Bloomberg's Option Portfolio Scenario Analysis.
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While there is utility in weighting hypotheses and branching potential outcomes from them, reliance on scenario analysis without reporting some parameters of measurement accuracy ( standard errors, confidence intervals of estimates, metadata, standardization and coding, weighting for non-response, error in reportage, sample design, case counts, etc . ) is a poor second to traditional prediction.
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The scenario analysis made assumption that North Korea will not use nuclear weapons, North Korea will not conduct ballistic missile attack against continental US or its allies, North Korea's attack will not have prior Chinese approval, and China would not intervene on behalf of North Korea and predicts US / SK coalition will not be defeated.
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Scenario analysis can also be used to illuminate " wild cards . " For example, analysis of the possibility of the earth being struck by a meteor suggests that whilst the probability is low, the damage inflicted is so high that the event is much more important ( threatening ) than the low probability ( in any one year ) alone would suggest.
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In a scenario analysis of future global nuclear development, as it could be effected by a decreasing global uranium market of average ore grade, the analysis determined that depending on conditions, median life cycle nuclear power GHG emissions could be between 9 and 110 g CO2-eq / kWh by 2050, with the latter figure regarded as an unrealistic " worst-case scenario " by the authors of the study.
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